What do the fish-vs-plastic myths distract us from?

The idea that plastic will outweigh fish in the ocean by 2050 has become one of the most widely-quoted statistics in environmental

discussions. But this disguises the real nature of the problem. 

Fish make up around 29% of animal biomass on this planet (Ritchie 2024) but calculating their mass in oceans is very difficult. We can estimate algae concentrations from satellite imagery - a proxy for fish food

- but actual marine biomass remains uncertain and rather variable. 

Estimating ocean plastic is a similarly complex process. Much of it breaks down and the vast majority directly sinks to the sea floor. Many projections are based on extrapolations - assuming that plastic production and pollution will continue rising exponentially. That’s not certain to happen but that is the industry's plan to gain with plastics what they will be losing from oil and gas. Same corporations, same dramatic environmental and social results.

A False Equivalence

The real issue is that comparing plastic to fish creates a false equivalence. It suggests a contest between two measurable things, when in reality, things are far more complex. Even a small, nearly invisible amount of plastic can do massive harm. Plastic in our oceans has been recorded entangling at least 340 marine species, including whales, turtles and seals. It’s been ingested by over 230 species, blocking digestive tracts and stunting growth. Microplastics accumulate up the food chain, causing biomagnification and bioaccumulation and eventually reaching humans through the food we eat. In addition, humans also ingest microplastics from food and drink and inhale microplastics from air and dust.

Plastic and microplastics also act as vehicles for invasive species, travelling long distances across oceans and introducing organisms into fragile new environments. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable - plastics can cut, suffocate, or poison them, threatening entire ecosystems. 

Breaking Ecosystems

Whether or not plastic outweighs fish is not what we should be focusing our attention on. The real concern is that even at current levels, ocean plastics are breaking ecosystems apart.

Framing the issues as a race to the bottom misses the urgency of the current situation - and what we urgently need to change.

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For more information contact: info@scarabtrust.org.uk

Images: Turtle swimming/ Turtle caught in net from Wix media

Thanks to Frédérique Mongodin from Seas at Risk and Laura Díaz Sánchez from BFFP for editorial support.