Too Much Capacity? The Next Question for England’s Incinerators

England’s waste system faces a second problem closely connected to lock-in: capacity.

The Government’s statutory 2042 target requires residual waste to fall to 287 kg per person, while the interim target is 437 kg per person by 2030⁠.

Defra’s modelling indicates that collection and packaging reforms will contribute towards the reduction, but further policies will be required to close the remaining gap.

That matters because incinerators are long-lived assets. If more capacity is built than future waste volumes require, councils and operators could be left with underused infrastructure or financial incentives to keep waste flowing into it. Defra’s 2024 capacity assessment⁠ specifically warned against infrastructure that creates long-term barriers to recycling and waste reduction.

Current figures demonstrate how central incineration has become to England’s waste system. In 2024/25, around 12.7 million tonnes of local-authority-collected waste were sent for incineration, representing 50.3% of the total⁠. Regional differences are substantial: London sent 65.2% of its local-authority waste to incineration, compared with 35.8% in the East of England.

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There is also a climate dimension. The Climate Change Committee has called for clearer planning around future Energy-from-Waste capacity and stronger action to address emissions from the sector⁠, including consideration of how capacity aligns with recycling and Net Zero objectives.

UKWIN’s letter⁠ argues that England should progressively reduce incineration capacity and avoid new plants that could create further lock-in. This is an advocacy position rather than settled government policy. However, it raises a broader planning question:

If England succeeds in producing much less residual waste, what happens to infrastructure built on the assumption that there will always be enough waste to burn?

The issue is therefore not simply whether England needs incineration. Some genuinely residual waste will continue to require treatment. The more difficult question is whether the amount of infrastructure being planned today reflects the considerably smaller waste stream England is aiming to create tomorrow.

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For more information contact: info@scarabtrust.org.uk

Image: smoky chimneys -  Photo by Dominik Dancs on Unsplash (ST ref: 1416)

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